Saturday, December 31, 2011

NBC poll: Romney, Paul close in Iowa; Gingrich 5th

In the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

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By NBC's Mark Murray

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa ? identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation ? ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.


They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

The Republican presidential hopefuls are in high gear with just days left until the Iowa caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.

?More than half of [Gingrich?s] support has evaporated,? said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich?? from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign?? have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he?d be unacceptable as the GOP?s nominee. That?s a 19-point increase from last month.

"The fight I'm in with Romney is exactly the fight that Reagan was in with the establishment in '80," GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich tells NBC's Chuck Todd in a one-on-one interview.

What?s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the ?true conservative? in the Republican contest.

?He took it on the chin,? Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich?s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.

Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he?s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).

And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.

The wild card in this race has been and continues to be Ron Paul, the Libertarian who has a growing following inside the Republican Party. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.

Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.

But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters ? who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers ? are divided.

Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.

?This is the Romney dream scenario,? Miringoff says. ?When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.?

Obama?s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama?s approval rating in Iowa.

Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.

Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum vaults past Newt Gingrich and into third place in the GOP presidential race in Iowa, according to a new poll. Santorum talks to TODAY's Savannah Guthrie about the surge, his conservative values and why he can beat Barack Obama in the general election.

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.

Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.

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Source: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/30/9822616-nbc-poll-mitt-romney-ron-paul-neck-and-neck-in-iowa-newt-gingrich-in-5th

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North Koreans' Tears, Sadness Upon Kim Jong Il's Death (Time.com)

Ever since North Korea announced the death of Kim Jong Il, the wailing has come nonstop. From the woman in black on television, who announced that the Dear Leader had slipped these surly bonds of earth, to those who have gathered daily since then to moan and wail and beat their chests in agonized sadness, the North Koreans have shown that they do public grief better than anyone else.

And make no mistake: they have just begun to weep. On Dec. 28, when Kim Jong Il's funeral takes place in Pyongyang, the masses will be bawling and howling. They'll cry like few men (or women) have cried before. As the rest of the world has watched these scenes, most people are asking a very reasonable question: Are these people nuts? (See photos of Kim Jong Il lying in state.)

After all, it's not as if they had been living somewhere else when tens if not hundreds of thousands of their fellow North Koreans died of starvation in the late 1990s, the direct result of the ludicrous economic policies put in place by the Dear Leader. They walked past the corpses every day. "Everyone knew what was going on," says Kim Shin-yong, who defected from the North in 2002. Nor are they unaware that thousands of others have been flung into the country's notorious political prisons, many for no other reason than being related to somebody who had somehow offended the regime. Yet out they've come, crying their eyes out for a leader who is a sure-shot first-ballot entrant into the Despots Hall of Fame.

Why do they do it? The answer, as is usual in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is complicated. Many psychologists who view these scenes from afar consider them legitimate. Raised in isolation and fed an unrelenting diet of personality-cult-driven propaganda for their entire lives, a people can feel rudderless and grief-stricken when they hear that Kim has joined his late father, the Great Leader Kim Il Sung, in the afterlife. Scott Atran, a psychologist at the University of Michigan, notes accurately enough that the people of North Korea were told from Day One that virtually everything they have came from the Dear Leader, "and they have no alternative form of reality." And mass grief, though particularly intense in North Korea, isn't wholly unique. Chinese of a certain age recall that when Mao Zedong died in 1976, many Chinese were shocked into tears that the father of their country was no longer with them.

But as Jane Bolton, a psychiatrist, wrote last year in Psychology Today, "a lot of misunderstanding happens around the act of crying," and in North Korea, is that ever true. There are reasons other than grief that enter into play that, to put it politely, would not be a factor elsewhere. Cheong Seong Chang, a longtime North Korea watcher in Seoul, notes that mid-level party officials, if they are seen to be wailing louder than co-workers, "might get promoted." (See 10 things you didn't know about North Korea's new leader Kim Jong Un.)

And it's what happens to that other guy -- the guy stupid enough not to be wailing in public -- that provides the real motivation. Scholars of the system in North Korea say that if you are out and about and happen upon a group of criers, you'd best be seen crying too -- particularly if there are cameras rolling. As Lee Sung Yoon, a researcher for the National Asia Research Program, told CNN recently, "If you're not devastated by the news, you might get in trouble."

North Korean defectors say you can eliminate the might from that sentence: the country, they claim, has a network of domestic informants that makes the old East German Stasi look like amateurs. The fact that the Dear Leader could preside over a famine like the one in the '90s and not have the regime even wobble shows just how tight a grip the government has on its benighted population.

The question -- almost unknowable from the outside -- is, What happens behind closed doors? Are the Koreans still crying? North Korea watchers observe that there is less intensity to the public displays of grief this time than when Kim Il Sung, the founder of the DPRK, died in 1994. They further note that the population is not quite as ignorant of the outside world today as it was back then. Modern technologies (cell phones and DVDs from South Korea and China) find their way into the country these days. Thousands defected in the wake of the famine, and many figured out ways to get messages back to friends and relatives about what life is like in China -- or in South Korea, if they are lucky enough to make it that far. (See pictures of the busy life of Kim Jong Il.)

Still, clues about what North Koreans actually think are maddeningly elusive. You take them where you can and try to fit them into the puzzle. Consider this: I spent a few days visiting a new university just outside Pyongyang about two weeks before Kim Jong Il died. The school is attended by elite kids, many of them connected to senior levels of government or the military. Some of the faculty and administration of this experimental new school -- all of whom are foreigners -- were on campus when the announcement of Kim's death came. I asked one person how the students had reacted to the news. Was there wailing, gnashing of teeth, rending of garments? "They were quiet, definitely," this person said. "But there was no crying."

None? "No. None that I saw."

Which was a relief to hear. The kids who attend this school are anything but stupid. They know a bit about the outside world, but they are also very much products of the regime. That there wasn't a damp eye in the house is not, frankly, what I was expecting to hear. Remember that the next time you see news footage of what one friend of mine in Seoul calls "the great North Korean wailing contest." Not everything is as it seems in North Korea, and they're not as nuts as they look.

See TIME's 2011 Person of the Year: The Protester.

See TIME's Top 10 Everything of 2011.

View this article on Time.com

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Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/nkorea/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/time/20111229/wl_time/08599210315800

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Police Raid Baptist Church in Azerbaijan

ICC Note:

?Following a police raid on Baptists meeting for worship in Neftechala in Azerbaijan, Pastor Telman Aliev, his wife (who was not present during the raid), and all the Church members have been summoned for police questioning on 23 December, after threats of criminal prosecution have been made against the pastor,? Forum 18 News Service reports.

By Felix Corley

12/22/2011 Azerbaijan (Forum 18 News Service) ? Following a police raid on Baptists meeting for worship in Neftechala in Azerbaijan, Pastor Telman Aliev, his wife (who was not present during the raid), and all the Church members have been summoned for police questioning on 23 December, after threats of criminal prosecution have been made against the pastor. The authorities declared the Church "closed" and sealed its building (though it was later unsealed), and confiscated all the books they could find, Forum 18 News Service has learnt. Officials also asked for the full addresses of all Church members, and what ethnicity they are. The State Committee for Work with Religious Organisations official responsible for the area, who took part in the raid and would not give his last name, insisted to Forum 18 that: "Without registration you can't pray. We close any place of worship that isn't registered, including mosques." He then insisted: "We don't ban, we just demand documents." The Church has applied for re-registration, but like very many communities of all faiths its application has not been answered. Exercising the right to freedom of religion or belief without state permission is illegal in Azerbaijan, in defiance of international human rights standards.

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Source: http://www.persecution.org/2011/12/29/police-raid-baptist-church-in-azerbaijan/

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Friday, December 30, 2011

AlanBurge: KILT (610 AM) will end Rome's 14-year run with station - Houston Chronicle http://t.co/qwjrM02s

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U.S. Treasury: China Is Not Manipulating Its Currency

The United States Treasury has decided not to accuse China of manipulating its currency. Instead, the Obama administration acknowledged that the yuan, which is also known as the renminbi, was appreciating but not at an "insufficient" rate.

The AFP report:

"'The real exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB) is persistently misaligned and remains substantially undervalued, though the degree of this undervaluation appears to have declined significantly,' the Treasury said in an annual report to Congress."

"The Treasury said the currency, also called the yuan, had risen 7.5 percent against the dollar in the 18 months since Beijing began allowing a managed appreciation, and by 12 percent if China's high inflation rate is figured in."

The issue of currency manipulation matters, because if China keeps its currency low it means it can sell its goods cheaper in places like the U.S. A cheaper Yuan also makes U.S. goods more expensive.

As the AP reports, "the decision will likely anger unions and Democratic lawmakers, who have accused Beijing of artificially holdings down the value of its currency to gain trade advantages."

Dow Jones News Wire reports that the Treasury had delayed this report, which was due in October, "in the hopes of using global summits as leverage to convince China to let the yuan appreciate more quickly."

Dow Jones says it's no coincidence that the report was released while congress members were on holiday.

Update at 5:20 p.m. ET. More On The Criticism:

As expected, the criticism of the Obama administration's decision has begun. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who is campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination, said if elected president he would declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, according to the AP.

The Associated Press reports:

"Scott Paul, executive director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, also questioned the decision.

"'I'm disappointed that President Obama has now formally refused six times to cite China for its currency manipulation, a practice which has contributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of American manufacturing jobs,' Paul said."

Source: http://www.npr.org/stations/force/force_localization.php?station=KQED&url=http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/12/27/144335773/u-s-treasury-china-is-not-manipulating-its-currency?ft=1&f=1001

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30SECONDSTOMARS: RT @madness_style: your concert in Rome *____*! When you stopped everything just to stare at the beautiful moon in the sky! #MARSmemories

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Thursday, December 29, 2011

[NFL: Chicago Bears] - Cutler, Forte placed on injured reserve

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Source: http://www.sportspyder.com/teams/chicago-bears/articles/5497480

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Purdue beats Western Michigan 37-32 in Pizza Bowl

Purdue head coach Danny Hope gets the traditional Gatorade shower as the clock runs out on their 37-32 win over Western Michigan in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Detroit Free Press, Julian H. Gonzalez)

Purdue head coach Danny Hope gets the traditional Gatorade shower as the clock runs out on their 37-32 win over Western Michigan in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Detroit Free Press, Julian H. Gonzalez)

Purdue's Gary Bush celebrates with teammates, including Antavian Edison (13) and James Shepherd (63) after scoring on a 33-yard reception in the third quarter of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl college football game against Western Michigan Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, in Detroit. Purdue defeated Western Michigan 37-32. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Purdue coach Danny Hope holds the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl trophy while talking to Joe Holland (30), who is holding his Lineman of the Game award, following Purdue's 37-32 win over Western Michigan in a college football game Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Western Michigan's Robert Arnheim (12) can't make the reception as Purdue's Josh Johnson (28) looks on in the first quarter of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl college football game Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Purdue's Akeem Shavers carries the ball as Western Michigan's Freddie Bishop (97) give chase in the first half of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl college football game Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

(AP) ? Purdue coach Danny Hope sold school officials on his vision of winning with special teams when they picked him to replace the retiring Joe Tiller after the 2008 season.

That facet of the game helped the Boilermakers beat Western Michigan 37-32 on Tuesday night in the Little Caesars Bowl.

Purdue recovered two onside kicks and Raheem Mostert returned a kickoff 99 yards for a score that put Purdue up for good midway through the second quarter.

"The spread offense was the edge (with Tiller)," Hope said. "I wanted our edge to be special teams."

Caleb TerBush took the final snap at Ford Field, sprinted to the sideline and handed the football to Hope, who was recently given a contract extension.

"It's a moment that we've been waiting for the last three years," Hope said.

The Boilermakers (7-6) almost didn't beat the Broncos (7-6) despite having a double-digit lead for two-plus quarters.

Third-string running back Reggie Pegram scored the first two TDs of his career and Carson Wiggs made two field goals to help Purdue to take a 27-15 lead in the first half.

Wiggs also recovered one of his onside kicks, both of which he tapped toward a sideline after running at full speed as if he was trying to boot the ball deep.

"Two onside kicks really hurt us," Western Michigan coach Bill Cubit said. "We never got a break on defense in the first half."

Purdue had another 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter, but the Big Ten team had to hold on for the win against the Mid-American Conference program.

The Broncos got the ball with a chance to go ahead, but their comeback hopes ended when quarterback Alex Carder fumbled for his fifth turnover with just under 2 minutes left. Ryan Russell forced the final fumble and Bruce Gaston recovered to seal the win.

"It was nerve-racking," Purdue linebacker Joe Holland said. "But as a defender, you want the game to come to you."

The Boilermakers played in a bowl for the first time since 2007, when they beat Central Michigan ? also in Detroit.

Western Michigan, meanwhile, fell to 0-5 in postseason play.

"I thought we'd win and walk out of here happy," Cubit said.

Purdue's Akeem Shavers ran for a career-high 148 yards on 22 carries, filling in for the injured Ralph Bolden, and was named the game's MVP.

TerBush was 8 of 13 for 101 yards with a 33-yard touchdown pass to Gary Bush midway through the third quarter that put Purdue up 34-18. Robert Marve was 6 of 7 for 76 yards with a 1-yard scoring pass to Pegram in the first quarter.

Purdue defensive end Gerald Gooden had two of his team's four interceptions, and gave back one of those two turnovers back to the Broncos in a game filled with miscues and missed opportunities for both teams.

Western Michigan's star receiver, Jordan White, who drew at least one NFL scout to watch him, caught 13 passes ? including a one-handed grab ? for 249 yards and a score. He was given a sixth season of eligibility this year because of injuries.

"We're about 10 points from being 10-3," said White, who set MAC marks for yards receiving in a season and career. "I think we had all the pieces to the puzzle but we didn't make it happen on the field."

Carder was 31 of 57 for 413 yards with three TDs. But the junior matched a career high with four interceptions and gave up the ball a fifth time to end the Broncos' chances to rally in their home state in front of tens of thousands of their fans.

The Purdue headed back across the border to Indiana happy, especially school officials who added two years to Hope's deal last week to keep him under contract through 2016.

"Big difference between being a bowl participant and a bowl champion," Hope said. "It builds great momentum for our team and will give us a shot in the arm with recruiting and will energize our fan base."

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2011-12-28-FBC-Little-Caesars-Bowl/id-07986a4ff9494fb7a7d9b6c73327c150

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Kings open season with 100-91 win over Lakers (AP)

SACRAMENTO, Calif. ? Marcus Thornton scored 12 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter and the Sacramento Kings opened the season in grand fashion, beating the Los Angeles Lakers at home for the first time in more than three years, 100-91 on Monday night.

Tyreke Evans added 20 points, John Salmons had 13 and DeMarcus Cousins had 12 points and 11 rebounds for the Kings, who had lost nine of 10 to the Lakers and five straight at home.

Kobe Bryant scored 29 points and Metta World Peace added 19 for the Lakers, who opened the season with consecutive losses for the first time since 2002-03, putting a damper on the start of new coach Mike Brown's tenure.

Kings rookie Jimmer Fredette entered to a loud ovation midway through the first quarter and then committed a double dribble the first time he touched the ball.

Otherwise, it was nothing but a positive start to the season for the Kings, who didn't even know if they would be in Sacramento after ending last season with an overtime loss at home to the Lakers.

But the city got a reprieve when the team decided to stay for at least one more season instead of moving to Anaheim. That has led to newfound optimism that an emerging roster of young and athletic playmakers can return the Kings to prominence and the city can build a new arena to keep the team in California's capital city for the long term.

That roster gave the fans plenty to cheer about in the Kings' first season opener at home in eight years. They went on an 11-0 run around halftime and then put together a strong finish to the third quarter led by Cousins. Playing with four fouls, Cousins scored eight points in the final 3:20 of the third to give Sacramento a 78-64 lead heading into the fourth.

Thornton scored seven of the Kings' first nine points of the fourth as Sacramento maintained its lead. But six straight points by World Peace helped the Lakers cut it to 89-87 with 4:24 to play.

Thornton hit a 3-pointer to give the Kings some breathing room and Chuck Hayes had a key block on Pau Gasol leading to two free throws by Evans. The Lakers never got the deficit to less than five points after that. Thornton's jumper made it 99-89 with 1:10 to go, sending the crowd into a frenzy.

Los Angeles doesn't have to wait long to get a chance for its first win in this lockout-compacted season, as the Lakers host Utah on Tuesday night with their third game in three nights to open the season.

The Kings took a 49-40 halftime lead, giving the sellout crowd even more to cheer about than just the fact that the Kings are still in town. Sacramento scored the final seven points of the half, capped by Evans' drive for a one-handed scoop with 5.9 seconds remaining.

The Kings frustrated the Lakers at the other end of the court all half, holding them to 36.4 percent shooting including an uncharacteristic 4-for-13 performance from Bryant.

Sacramento even had success matching 5-foot-9 rookie Isaiah Thomas on Bryant on a few possessions in the second quarter despite a 9-inch height disadvantage. After missing a turnaround jumper over the shorter Thomas, Bryant could only manage to chuckle on his way back down the court.

Notes: The Kings have won six straight home openers. ... Mayor Kevin Johnson, who helped keep the Kings in Sacramento this season, was presented a jersey from owners Joe and Gavin Maloof. ... Bryant got called for a technical foul in the third quarter when he threw his hands in frustration after being fouled on a dunk attempt by J.J. Hickson.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/sports/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111227/ap_on_sp_bk_ga_su/bkn_lakers_kings

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Holiday season gives birth to new shoppers

FILE - In this Nov. 25, 2011 file photo, Christy Embry, left, and Crystal Coleman wait in a long check out line during the Black Friday sale at Bass Pro Shops, in Memphis, Tenn. A new economic reality and new traditions gave birth to new types of shoppers this holiday 2011 season: the extreme discount bargain hunter, the Black Friday novice, the big returner and the selfish shopper. (AP Photo/The Commercial Appeal, Alan Spearman, file)

FILE - In this Nov. 25, 2011 file photo, Christy Embry, left, and Crystal Coleman wait in a long check out line during the Black Friday sale at Bass Pro Shops, in Memphis, Tenn. A new economic reality and new traditions gave birth to new types of shoppers this holiday 2011 season: the extreme discount bargain hunter, the Black Friday novice, the big returner and the selfish shopper. (AP Photo/The Commercial Appeal, Alan Spearman, file)

FILE - In this Nov. 25, 2011 photo, shoppers line up in the electronics department at a North Little Rock, Ark., Sears store. A new economic reality and new traditions gave birth to new types of shoppers this holiday 2011 season: the extreme discount bargain hunter, the Black Friday novice, the big returner and the selfish shopper. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston. File)

FILE - In this Nov. 24, 2011 file photo, Jasmine Rogers shops in a Kmart in Chicago. A new economic reality and new traditions gave birth to new types of shoppers this holiday 2011 season: the extreme discount bargain hunter, the Black Friday novice, the big returner and the selfish shopper.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

FILE - In this Nov. 24, 2011 file photo, Jasmin Garcia checks a sleeping wear price at a Kmart in Chicago. A new economic reality and new traditions gave birth to new types of shoppers this holiday 2011 season: the extreme discount bargain hunter, the Black Friday novice, the big returner and the selfish shopper. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Four new types of American shoppers have emerged this holiday season.

There's the bargain hunter who times deals. The midnight buyer who stays up late for discounts. The returner who gets buyer's remorse. And the "me" shopper who self-gifts.

It's the latest shift by consumers in the fourth year of a weak U.S. economy. Shoppers are expected to spend $469.1 billion during the holiday shopping season that runs from November through December. While it won't be known just how much Americans spent until the season ends on Saturday, it's already clear they are shopping differently than they have in years past.

"We're seeing different types of buying behavior in a new economic reality," says C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group.

THE BARGAIN TIMER

Cost-conscious shoppers haven't just been looking for bargains this season. They've also been more deliberate about when to find those deals. Many believe the biggest bargains come at the beginning and end of the season, which has created a kind of "dumbbell effect" in sales.

For the week ended on Nov. 26, which included the traditional start of the holiday shopping season on the day after Thanksgiving, stores had the biggest sales surge compared with the prior week since 1993, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Stores Sales Index. The cumulative two-week-sales drop-off that followed marked the biggest percentage decline since 2000. Then, stores had another surge in the final days, as retailers stepped up their promotions again.

"Shoppers are budgeting their money and time," says Paco Underhill, whose company, Envirosell, studies how consumers behave in stores. "They're focused on being opportunistic bargain shopping vultures."

Kalilah Middleton, 30, of Queens, is one of them. Starting late on Thanksgiving night, she spent five hours and $400 at Wal-Mart and Target. She bought a TV and clothing at 50 percent off. Then, she waited until Christmas Eve to shop again because she believed she'd get better deals later in the season.

"This is when you get the best deals," says Middleton, an office manager, about her holiday shopping.

Going forward, shoppers are expecting even bigger discounts. According to America's Research Group research firm, 34 percent of shoppers say they want to see post-Christmas discounts of about 70 to 80 percent, up from 20 percent last year.

THE MIDNIGHT BUYER

Used to be, bargain shoppers would wake up at the crack of dawn to take advantage of big discounts on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. This year, some shoppers instead stayed up late on Thanksgiving night to get deals.

This behavior was in large part due to retailers' efforts to outdo each other during the traditional start to the holiday shopping season. Stores like Macy's, Best Buy and Target for the first time opened at midnight on Thanksgiving night, offering deals that once were reserved for the next day.

Twenty-four percent of Black Friday shoppers were at stores at midnight, according to a poll by the National Retail Federation, the industry's biggest trade group. That's up from 9.5 percent the year before when only a few stores were open during that time.

Of those shopping at midnight on Black Friday, 37 percent were ages 18 to 34. That percentage was higher than among 35- to 54-year-olds, of whom 23.5 percent were in stores by midnight.

Macy's, for one, drew 10,000 people to its midnight opening. Terry Lundgren, Macy's CEO, says many of them were young people who turned out for the Justin Bieber $65 gift sets and discounted fashions.

Anika Ruud, 15, of Boca Raton, Fla., went out with her four cousins to Macy's at midnight and then shopped at Target until 2:30 a.m. She picked up two bras at Macy's for $10. Then, she and her cousins went home to bed.

"It's always been inconvenient," Ruud says of the traditional 4 a.m. Black Friday openings of years past. "No one likes to wake up early."

THE RETURNER

Shoppers who were lured into stores by bargains gleefully loaded up on everything from discounted tablet computers to clothing early in the holiday season. But soon after, many of them were rushing back to return the items they bought.

For instance, Elizabeth Yamada, 55, of Fort Lee, N.J., says she got caught up with the shopping frenzy over the Thanksgiving weekend and picked up a $350 coat that was marked down more than 50 percent off at Macy's. She ended up returning the item one week later.

"It was nice, but I didn't need it," says Yamada, who works part-time as a waitress and a hospital aide. "It was impulsive shopping. But I am doing more reflecting."

It's all about buyer's remorse.

For every dollar stores take in this holiday season, it's expected they will have to give back 9.9 cents in returns, up from 9.8 last year, according to the a survey of 110 retailers the NRF. It would be the highest return rate since the recession. In better economic times, it's about 7 cents.

Stores have themselves to blame for the higher returns. They lured shoppers in with deals of up to 60 percent off as early as October. Because of the deals, shoppers spent more than they normally would. And retailers' return policies have been more lax since 2008, with some sweetening their policies even more this year.

THE "ME" SHOPPER

One for you; one for me.

After scrimping on themselves during the recession, Americans turned to shopping for themselves. It's a trend that started last year but became more prevalent this season.

According to the NRF, spending for non-gift items will increase by 16 percent this holiday season to $130.43 per person. That's the highest number recorded since it started tracking it in 2004.

"This season, the consumer put herself ahead of the giving," says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst with market research firm The NPD Group.

Betty Thomas, a health care coordinator at a hospital in Raleigh, N.C., says she spent $1,700 on a ring and bracelet for herself and a rug for her home during the holiday season. That's up dramatically from the $200 she spent last year.

"I have been putting other people first," Thomas says. "I definitely felt I earned it."

Stores have been encouraging such self-gifting.

AnnTaylor's campaign "Perfect Presents: One for you. One for her" highlighted merchandise like brightly colored sweaters. Brookstone's print ads urged shoppers to get accessories for their iPads and other electronics with the words: "gifts for your gadgets." And Shopittome.com, an online site that alerts consumers to clothing sales they're interested in, launched "Treat Yourself Tuesday" after Thanksgiving weekend.

_____

Anne D'Innocenzio reported from New York.

Christina Rexrode in Raleigh, N.C. contributed to this report.

Follow AP retail coverage at http://www.twitter.com/AP--Retail.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/apdefault/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-12-27-New%20Holiday%20Shoppers/id-684b4dd3fea54e23ba6bbc726679f138

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NFL Playoff Simulator Will Make Your Monday

Published on: December 26, 2011 | Written by: Clay Travis

Reason number 1,468,579 why playoffs are better than the BCS -- because just about every game in the final weekend implicates the playoffs in some form or fashion. Welcome to the NFL's week 17 where fully 14 of the 16 games matter to some degree or the other. For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you already know how addictive I find Yahoo's Playoff Generator. Here's the link for you to entertain yourself if you happen to be working this fine Monday morning.

If every favorite in the AFC mix wins -- Titans, Ravens, Raiders, Broncos, and Dolphins -- the Titans make the playoffs.

Here are the three Titan playoff scenarios courtesy of the league office:

1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

?

...

?

And if you thought that was confusing, take a gander at how much uncertainty there still is with the AFC playoff picture. (The NFC is pretty much set except for the NFC East.)

?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) NE win or tie

2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) BAL win

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie

3) PIT loss

Baltimore clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) BAL win + NE loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie

2) PIT tie + BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division:

1) DEN win

2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie

3) OAK loss

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland clinches AFC West Division:

1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie

2) OAK tie + DEN loss

Oakland clinches a wild-card spot:

1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:

1) CIN win or tie

2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

NEW YORK JETS

NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:

1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

?

?

?

Source: http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/nfl-playoff-simulator-will-make-your-monday-.php

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Pope denounces Nigeria church blast as 'absurd' (AP)

VATICAN CITY ? Pope Benedict XVI has denounced the bombing of a Nigerian Catholic church that killed 35 people on Christmas Day, saying only respect and reconciliation can bring peace ? not violence.

Speaking at his post-Christmas blessing Monday, Benedict said he had learned with "profound sadness" of the "absurd" attack on the St. Theresa Catholic Church in Madalla, which was claimed by the Islamist extremist group Boko Haram.

It was the second year in a row that the group has staged Christmas attacks.

Benedict invited everyone to pray for the victims and Nigeria's Christian community.

He said: "In this moment, I want to repeat once again with force: violence is a path that leads only to pain, destruction and death. Respect, reconciliation and love are the only path to peace."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/religion/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111226/ap_on_re_eu/eu_vatican_pope

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Teen Murdered in London Retail Shop

(NewsCore) - A teenage boy was stabbed to death Monday on Britain's busiest shopping street as bargain hunters flocking to post-Christmas sales looked on in horror.

The 18-year-old was attacked inside a branch of Foot Locker, sources told Sky News.

He staggered out of the store and collapsed on central London's Oxford Street, where he was pronounced dead, reports said.

The chilling incident was one of two knife attacks that took place as the iconic shopping destination was teeming with bargain-hunting Britons, who had already spent an estimated ?15 million ($23 million) in the first three hours of post-Christmas trading.

A large swath of the one and a half mile (2.5km) thoroughfare was closed after the first attack at 1:45pm local time, causing chaos in surrounding streets and prompting some stores to close early.

As a section of Oxford Street remained taped off Monday evening, reports surfaced of a second incident in which another man was stabbed near the junction with Regent Street, another landmark London address.

He was taken to the hospital with a leg wound but was expected to survive, police told Sky.

London's Metropolitan Police said approximately 10 people were arrested in connection with the fatal stabbing but the victim's identity has not been disclosed.

There have so far been no arrests in connection with the second attack and it is not known if the two are linked.

Detectives will now comb through hours of surveillance video from the numerous security cameras positioned around Oxford Street, which is crammed with around 300 stores.

They also have potentially hundreds of witnesses to question.

The killing comes just days after the release of retro Nike Air Jordan sneakers sparked scuffles and near-riots in shoe stores across America Friday.

Source: http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpps/news/teen-boy-fatally-stabbed-in-busy-london-shopping-district-dpgonc-20111226-kh_16611927

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Taylor Lautner "Out & Proud" Magazine Cover a Hoax

It turns out that Taylor Lautner isn't as out and proud as some Internet pranksters would like people to believe. A People magazine cover has been floating around the web recently proclaiming that the Twilight star, 19, had come out of the closet in an upcoming issue, but it turns out that the image is actually just the product of Photoshop magic.

Source: http://www.ivillage.com/taylor-lautner-gay-magazine-cover-hoax/1-a-413894?dst=iv%3AiVillage%3Ataylor-lautner-gay-magazine-cover-hoax-413894

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Follow Santa as he heads to North Texas!

Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.

Source: http://www.pegasusnews.com/news/outbursts/2011/dec/24/where-is-santa-google/

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Tornado Alley for electrons ? Chasing the aurora borealis

In America ?storm-chasers? are the intrepid types who pursue tornadoes, and sometimes hurricanes. But the Arctic Circle has its aurora chasers ? people who speed around in search of the best views of the aurora borealis, or Northern Lights.

?Last week we saw one that had everything ? spiralling, curtains, ribbons, greens and reds, and the whole sky lit up. We were amazed at what was unfolding before us,? says Andy Keen.

Five years ago he left his job running a charity in the UK to move to Ivalo, a remote village in northern Lapland, Finland, latitude 68 degrees ? two degrees above the Arctic Circle. ?I saw a TV documentary about the Northern Lights. So I went there to have a look. Now I?m absolutely addicted,? he says.

Mr Keen?s company, Aurorahunters, now takes seven tourists a week on hunting trips in the Arctic wilderness to search for the Northern Lights?There are similar companies operating elsewhere in Finland and in neighbouring Norway where the official tourism website describes the aurora as ?a tricky lady?. It adds: ?You never know when she bothers to turn up. This diva keeps you waiting??

When a location has been selected, Mr Keen and his group jump into minibuses and head into the wilderness, sometimes taking to sledges pulled by huskies to reach the most remote areas. They often see moose and bear tracks and have ventured as far north as the Arctic Ocean.

All to get the best vantage point to see the aurora borealis, named after the Roman goddess of dawn (Aurora) and the Greek name for the north wind (Boreas)?

RTFA. Details about the causes, predictions. Suggestions about chasing and photographing the elusive beauty of the aurora. All useful.

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Source: http://eideard.com/2011/12/26/tornado-alley-for-electrons-chasing-the-aurora-borealis/

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Former Manchester United striker Dong joins Chinese club

25/12/2011

Beijing: Former Manchester United striker Dong Fangzhuo has joined Chinese first division football league side Hunan Xiangtao.

Former Manchester United striker Dong joins Chinese club

Fangzhou joined the Chinese club from Mika in the Armenian Premier League.

"I am back home," Dong said. "But my return to China doesn't mean that I am incapable of playing abroad."

The 26-year-old Dong, who joined Mika in March, scored six goals for the club, including one each in the semi-final and final when they won the title of the Armenian FA Cup.

"Mika wanted to extend the contract with me, but I refused," he said.

Dong signed for Manchester United from Dalian Shide in January 2004, for an initial fee of 500,000 pounds which could have risen to 3.5 million, depending upon appearances.

But he failed to impress Alex Ferguson in the following four years. For most of the time, he played on loan for Royal Antwerp in Belgium, where he scored 37 goals in three seasons.

He went back to Manchester United in 2007 but played only three times in the Premier League. His contract was terminated in 2008.

Dong then joined home team Dalian Shide in the Chinese Super League but struggled to score goals and was relegated to the reserves as a result.

His poor performances in the league also prevented him from being called up for the national team.

"This time I am sure I will play well in China," Dong said.

Source: IANS

Source: http://sports.in.msn.com/football/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5703094

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Monday, December 26, 2011

SF Firefighters, Community Support Family Of Deceased Modesto Teenager

The University of California at San Francisco Parnassus campus (UCSF)

The University of California at San Francisco Parnassus campus (UCSF)

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) ? San Francisco firefighters and community members are pulling together to help the family of a Modesto teen who died of leukemia at a local hospital on Friday.

Enrique Yocupicio, 15, was receiving treatment at the University of California at San Francisco?s Benioff Children?s Hospital, and his family was staying at the hospital?s Family House on nearby Irving Street.

Several weeks ago, a social worker from the hospital?s cancer ward contacted the San Francisco Fire Fighters Toy Program and asked if the firefighters could bring some toys to the hospital for Enrique and his brothers, said Jill Peeler, one of the coordinators of the toy program.

?Of course we got some toys together,? she said.

While they were there, the firefighters heard Enrique?s story and met his mother, Marcela Yocupicio.

?Once we met her, we knew we couldn?t just leave the toys; we knew we had to come back and help,? Peeler said.

She said Enrique?s mother, father and four brothers ? ages 10, 12, 13 and 19 ? were all staying at the Family House.

The father wasn?t working in order to be with his son, and the 19-year-old ? a bone marrow match for Enrique ? had dropped out of college to donate bone marrow and support his brother, Peeler said.

?He basically extended (Enrique?s) life,? Peeler said.

Despite all of the efforts to save him, Enrique died Friday, two days before Christmas.

?While everyone else is celebrating Christmas, they?re worried about burying their son,? Peeler said.

She said the firefighters, who had been visiting Enrique daily, had grown close to the family and are trying to raise money to pay for his funeral and burial.

Peeler estimated it will probably cost about $4,500 to hold the funeral at Duggan?s Serra Mortuary in Daly City, and that the burial in Modesto will likely cost about $3,000.

Dan Duggan, of the family that owns the mortuary, donated $400 toward the service, and Mark Fontana, of Colma tombstone maker V. Fontana & Co. has donated a headstone, Peeler said.

The firefighters are holding a fundraiser on Tuesday at a Mexican restaurant in San Francisco to try to make up the difference.

In the meantime, firefighters and others have been working in other ways to lighten the family?s burden. Peeler and some other firefighters have been taking Enrique?s brothers on outings, and the 19-year-old, who wants to become a police officer, did a ride-along with the Marin County Sheriff?s Office.

Tuesday?s fundraiser will take place from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. at Don Ramon?s restaurant at 225 11th St. Dinner will cost $25, $10 of which will go toward the funeral service.

Those wishing to donate money can send a check ? with ?Enrique? in the memo line ? to the San Francisco Fire Fighters Toy Program, 1139 Mission St., San Francisco 94130.

Donations can also be made by visiting www.sffirefighterstoys.org and clicking on ?Donate.? Donors can note that the money should go toward Enrique?s family.

(Copyright 2011 by CBS San Francisco and Bay City News Service. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed)

37.784511 -122.440412

Source: http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r5665670786&f=378

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Knicks edge Celtics 106-104 on Anthony foul shots (AP)

NEW YORK ? Carmelo Anthony scored 37 points, including a pair of free throws with the game tied and 16 seconds left, and the New York Knicks survived a seesaw season opener Sunday to beat the Boston Celtics 106-104.

Amare Stoudemire added 21 points and Toney Douglas had 19 for the Knicks, who led by 17 in the first half, trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter, then pulled out a thrilling Christmas victory in the delayed opener to the 2011-12 season.

Rajon Rondo had 31 points and 13 assists, nearly leading the Celtics back without an injured Paul Pierce. But Kevin Garnett missed a jumper just before the buzzer, the kind of shot Boston always seems to make against the Knicks.

Brandon Bass had 20 points and 11 rebounds in his Celtics debut, and Ray Allen added 20 points.

Garnett finished with 15 points. He and Allen had a sleepy Christmas start, with Rondo keeping the Celtics in the game until they got going in the second half.

But it wasn't enough against the Knicks, who withstood a potentially serious knee injury to first-round pick Iman Shumpert to beat the team that swept them out of the first round of last season's playoffs.

Pierce has a bruised right heel but hopes he can return Tuesday when the Celtics visit the Miami Heat.

Even without him, the Celtics fought back to tie it at 69 on Rondo's layup midway through the third quarter. They surged ahead by eight going into the final period after Bass scored the final six points, then extended it to 89-79 on Bass' jumper to open the fourth.

Anthony tied it at 100 on a 3-pointer with 3:25 to play, and it stayed tight until he was fouled on a drive with 16.3 seconds left, making both for a 106-104 lead. Rondo grabbed the rebound of Marquis Daniels' potential go-ahead 3-pointer to give the Celtics a final chance, but Garnett was off on a jumper, then appeared to shove the Knicks' Bill Walker away.

Coming off their first winning season in a decade, the Knicks added a defensive presence by signing Tyson Chandler away from the NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and have loftier expectations than they've seen in years. The original NBA schedule had them opening against Miami, but instead they got a chance to see if they've closed the gap against the team they hope to unseat atop their division.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers even compared the Knicks to the Lakers because of the length along their front line with Chandler in between Stoudemire and Anthony. Though the Celtics won all eight meetings last season, the Knicks have been listed some places as the favorites in the Atlantic Division, which the Celtics have ruled since their Big Three came together in 2007.

"It's possible. Right now, anybody could win the division. Everybody knows how optimism kicks in before the season starts, but then once reality sets in after the first month of the season, we'll see," Pierce said before the game. "But it's definitely a possibility. I mean, they have the talent, but we have the talent, too, So I can see that."

D'Antoni was careful to keep the expectations low, saying the limited amount of practice time before the season started means it could be a few weeks before all the new players are used to each other. The Knicks won't even have one, Baron Davis, for a while as he recovers from a herniated disc in his back.

Shumpert was expected to be a key until then, but he sprained a right knee ligament in the second half.

The Celtics are a changed team as well, with the retirement of Shaquille O'Neal and the season-ending loss of Jeff Green for surgery to repair an aortic aneurysm. And they will face questions about how their veteran core can navigate the tight 66-game schedule.

But the acquisition of Bass from Orlando for Glen Davis paid immediate dividends, as he showed a nice midrange jumper when he wasn't busy keeping balls alive on the glass.

The first game since renovations began at Madison Square Garden included the usual cast of celebrities such as Alicia Keys, Chris Rock and John McEnroe, and some new confusion, as at least one Celtics player had to ask how to get to the court from the new visitors' locker room.

The Knicks led 34-23 after one and extended it to 49-32 with 7 1/2 minutes left in the half on a pair of free throws by Chandler. But the Celtics shot 62 percent in the quarter, getting it back into single digits before New York took a 62-52 lead into halftime.

Notes: Rivers said Pierce may come off the bench when he does return, since he's had only one practice so far. ... The Knicks were without Mike Bibby, who dressed but didn't play because of a sore back. Reserve Jared Jeffries was lost during the game to a sore right calf. ... Stoudemire provided pregame breakfast to MSG staff in appreciation of the support in his first season with the team.

___

Follow Brian Mahoney on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/Briancmahoney

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111225/ap_on_sp_bk_ga_su/bkn_celtics_knicks

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Holiday - University Offices Closed (12/26/2011)

Holiday - University Offices Closed
Monday, December?26, 2011


Enter description here


Calendar Name: Department of Mathematics
Event Category: University Announcements
Start Time:
End Time:
Event Begins On: Monday, December?26, 2011
Event Ends On: Monday, December?26, 2011
Submitter's Name:
Submitter's Email:
Submitter's Phone:

Source: http://events.colostate.edu/event_view.asp?EID=34361&ID=0

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Gingrich, Perry Fail to Qualify for Virginia Primary Ballot (Michellemalkin)

Share With Friends: Share on FacebookTweet ThisPost to Google-BuzzSend on GmailPost to Linked-InSubscribe to This Feed | Rss To Twitter | Politics - Top Stories Stories, News Feeds and News via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/178771475?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Sunday, December 25, 2011

buberzionist: . @standwithus is a pro-Israel group that works with Israeli govt and mainstream US Jewish groups. Yay! Keep up the good work chaverim

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. @standwithus is a pro-Israel group that works with Israeli govt and mainstream US Jewish groups. Yay! Keep up the good work chaverim buberzionist

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Source: http://twitter.com/buberzionist/statuses/150784885768990722

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Best of 2011: Hottest Hookups (omg!)

Best of 2011: Hottest Hookups

2011 was a big year for Hollywood hookups!

From Alec Baldwin's love for much-younger yoga teacher Hilaria Thomas to Jennifer Lopez's rebound romances with Bradley Cooper and Casper Smart, there were no shortage of pheromones amongst the stars!

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PHOTOS: Hot rebound romances

Tell Us: Who was 2011's hottest couple to hook up?

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Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/entertainment/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/omg_rss/rss_omg_en/news_best2011_hottest_hookups_002543677/43996172/*http%3A//omg.yahoo.com/news/best-2011-hottest-hookups-002543677.html

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Analysis: Mexico 2012 frontrunner stirs reform optimism (Reuters)

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) ? Investors frustrated with years of gridlock on economic reforms in Mexico now believe the best chance for progress lies with the party that has done most to prevent change over the last decade.

Enrique Pena Nieto of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, has a commanding poll ahead of the presidential election in July and, if its support holds, the PRI could win the first ruling party majority in Congress in 15 years.

Pena Nieto, 45, has pledged an ambitious reform agenda that backs some of the very policies his party has blocked since 2000, when a victory by the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, ended seven decades of PRI rule.

The reforms include boosting tax revenues and allowing more private investment in the state-run oil industry. The failure of Mexico's political leaders to reach a deal on those issues is blamed for holding back the economy.

Growth has averaged about 2.2 percent during the past eight years - barely half the rate for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.

Investors say failure to liberalize the labor market, improve a paltry tax take and attract more foreign investment could condemn Mexico to years of weak growth and threaten its credit rating.

They hope that PRI leaders who blocked reforms over the past decade will push them through if they win back power.

"The PRI knows good and well that this is going to blow up in their faces," said Alonso Madero, who manages $4 billion in fixed income assets at Actinver in Mexico City.

"Eventually it will be in their interest to approve many things they rejected in the past," he added.

STRONGER PESO EYED

The PRI currently holds just under half the 500 seats in Mexico's lower house. But it only has a quarter of seats in the 128-member Senate due to a poor showing in 2006 elections.

A clear victory for Pena Nieto next year could restore to the PRI the congressional majority it lost in 1997. Ever since then, bickering between Mexico's three major parties has scuttled a host of economic and political reforms.

Legislative inertia sapped confidence in President Felipe Calderon's PAN, which has been battered by a drugs war that has claimed more than 45,000 lives in the last five years. The PAN could still mount a strong campaign in the presidential election but is very unlikely to win a majority in Congress.

Provided it ousts the PAN, the PRI could change its position and back a value-added tax on food as part of a wider overhaul of public finances.

"If they want to hold onto the presidency for a couple of terms, it's clear they need to do something different to move the economy in the right direction," said Will Landers, the head of BlackRock's $8.5 billion Latin American equity fund.

The risk of a fresh economic slump in the United States, where Mexico sends nearly 80 percent of its exports, makes the need for reforms in Mexico even more pressing.

Polls show Pena Nieto with a big lead over his rivals although the gap has narrowed this month as he has stumbled with a series of gaffes.

If Pena Nieto does win, J.P. Morgan economist Gabriel Casillas expects Mexico's peso currency to rocket back by about 18 percent next year to 11.80 per dollar, spurred by a wave of inflows into bonds and stocks due to optimism on reforms.

Behind Pena Nieto's campaign is Luis Videgaray, a protege of former finance minister Pedro Aspe, who helped lead a reform drive in the 1990s. Videgaray is respected by investors who see him as Pena Nieto's likely pick for finance minister.

During Aspe's time, Mexico became a emerging-market darling, negotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement and privatized pension funds. But investors have since turned their attention to faster-growing economies like China and Brazil.

WEAK TAX TAKE

Mexico's weak tax revenues have been a major worry, and past administrations have chosen to bleed the state-run oil giant Pemex rather than levying new taxes.

With nearly a third of the economy off the books and ample corporate loopholes, Mexico has one of the lowest tax takes in Latin America. Excluding oil income, the state collects taxes worth around 11 percent of gross domestic product.

Oil revenues fund nearly a third of the federal budget and the country's dependence on finite crude supplies was the main reason credit rating agencies downgraded Mexico in 2009.

Pena Nieto devoted a whole chapter of his new book "Mexico - la gran esperanza (the great hope)" to fiscal reform, pledging to simplify taxes and expand the taxpayer base.

He has yet to offer details of his plans, but argues that a shake-up could bolster Mexico's economic potential and fund an overhaul of its ailing justice system.

"For these transformations to become reality, a bigger public budget is needed," Pena Nieto wrote.

Doubts still linger about whether the 45-year-old will be able to carry out his reform plans, with his calls to open up Pemex to private investment in exploration, production and refining likely to face strong opposition from unions.

Since Mexico nationalized the oil industry in 1938, public support for the policy has helped shield Pemex and its bloated workforce from allegations of corruption and inefficiency.

"Pena Nieto is promising a lot of things he will not be able to deliver when it comes to private investment in Pemex," said Mexico City political analyst Fernando Dworak.

(Additional reporting by Miguel Angel Gutierrez; Editing by Dave Graham and Kieran Murray)

(michael.oboyle@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +5255-5282-7153; Reuters Messaging: michael.oboyle.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/latam/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111223/wl_nm/us_mexico_election_reforms

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